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Reported US Base Locations In Early
October 2019 Note: Most of the bases were along the M4
north Syrian highway, which is now set to be roughly the southern
extent of Turkey's planned safe zone.
For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Turkish Proposed Safe Zone for Northeast Syria For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Video of British airplanes bombing Syrian oil fields (euronews)
Video from AFP showing Kurds successfully operating a large oilfield in NE
Syria
Image of Kurds Manually Operating Oil Field Equipment in
Northeastern Syria
Image of Kurds Operating a Large Oil Field in Northeastern Syria
Video of Turkish "tanks" firing on Kurdish positions prior to
the cease fire.
Syrian Conflict: Clash Between Iran
and Israel Nov. 20 2019 =========================
1) Israel responded to the 4 missiles launched on Nov.
19th from Syria towards the Golan Heights with overnight raids
against Iranian targets in Syria killing 23, including 16
Iranians.These back and forth attacks suggest an escalation of
the conflict between Israel and Iran. In turn, this raises
questions on whether Israel will start directly attacking high
value targets in Iran, including within its oil industry.
The US
withdraws from Syria: Latest
Reports and Videos
Oct. 30 2019 =========================
1) At a news conference on Monday, October 28, US Defense
Secretary stated in response to a question that, “US troops will
remain positioned in this strategic area to deny ISIS (Daesh)
access those vital resources. And we will respond with
overwhelming military force against any group that threatens the
safety of our forces there,” he confirmed that this exclusion
also includes Syrian or Russian forces.
Oct. 29 2019 =========================
1) The Syrian oil industry is likely going to need
considerable investment to repair the damage visited upon it
during the
long years of civil war. As a reminder, the forces arayed
against ISIS specifically targeted much of the Syrian oil and
gas industry because the Islamic militants were using oil
produced from the fields to finance the Islamic state and
the various acts of violence in the region and in the west. Video of
British planes bombing a Syrian oil field.What President
Trump appears to be saying is that because these repair costs
will not be bourne by the US tax payer, the Syrians/Kurds need
companies with deep pockets to pay for the repairs.
Natural candidates for such are oil companies, which have both
the expertise and the capital to repair the fields.
2)
Israel is reminding the industry that the proliferation of
precision guided munitions, such as those that were used in the
Abqaiq and Khurias attacks in September, continue to improve in
accuracy and grow in power. Specifically, Israel is
pointing towards Iran, and the growing sophistication of its
missile arsenal and the increasing threat it represents.
However, what is frequently unsaid in such commentary is the
vulnerability of Iran itself to the same type of weapons,
as is shown by this map,
which presents the potential targets in
Iran that might be vulnerable to such weapons or retaliation if
the use of such weapons were tied back to it.
Oct. 28 2019
=========================
1) Trump indicated at his press conference announcing the
successful operation to eliminate al-Baghdadi that he wanted US
oil companies to manage the residual Syrian oil and gas fields.
Specifically, he stated "What I intend to do, perhaps, is make a
deal with an ExxonMobil or one of our great companies to go in
there and do it properly...and spread out the wealth," he said.
Though ExxonMobil was specifically mentioned, if such an arrangement were
executed it would probably be performed by a service sector
firm, especially one of the mid-size firms, working with Kurdish
authorities. Who knows,
perhaps they could be enticed by being offered the Syrian frack
concession on a long term basis?
This is a link to graphs presenting Syria's historical oil and gas production numbers. 2) Per the VOA,
"Russia's defense ministry on Saturday attacked U.S. plans to
maintain and boost the American military presence in eastern
Syria as "international state banditry" motivated by a desire to
protect oil smugglers and not by real security concerns."
Link to full article 3)
Kurds have a
long history operating Syrian oil and gas fields in NE Syria. As illustrated in this video,
Kurd have a long history of operating
Oct. 23 2019 ========================= 1)
Turkey is essentially declaring victory and has indicated that
it will no longer pursue offensive military operations in
northeast Syria.(see
map) As a result, Turkey is reportedly rethinking its
plan to establish 12 military bases inside northeasten Turkey.
2) Per an agreement recently reached in Sochi between Putin and
Erdogan, Russia has informed the YPG and its fighters that they
must pull back at least 20 kilometers from the
Turkey-Syrian border or face military action. 3) The US
relayed to Ankara that Syrian Kurdish forces have evacuated the
so-called "safe" zone. However, this appears to now be
limited to the area between Tal Abad and Ras al-Ain and bounded
by the M4 on its southern edge (see map). This is a
considerably smaller area than originally indicated by Ergodan
when the Turkish invasion started. 4) Given the
developments listed in the previous three bullet points, the
axis of conflict is now shifting from Kurd vs Turkey to Syria
(Assad) vs Turkey (Erdogan). The Syrian government under
Assad views the Turkish incurrsion to be an invasion, and now
wants to expel the occupiers from northeastern Syria. This
obviously sets up a heightened tension between the two
countries, especially as the Turks begin to shift millions of
Syrian refugees from within its borders to the part of Syria it
has newly conquered. 5)
Merkel is proposing that the "safe zone" just created in
northeastern Syria be administered by amongst others, the German
military. The Syrians and Turks may both have
something to say about that. Oct. 22, 2019 =========================
1) In a possible retaliation for the Abqaiq and Khurias attacks,
a large fire has been reported at Iran's Abadan refinery.
If so, this would be consistent with the analysis we performed
and presented
here and
here showing possible retaliation targets. 2) As we suggested may be
the case in previous commentary, it is now being reported
(per this article) that the US is now signaling that at
least some special forces personnel may stay in Syria to
maintain control over the oil and gas fields. 3) Perhaps not
surprisingly, Iraq is now suggesting that the US personnel
pulling back from Syria are
not welcome for longer than it takes for them to transit to
somewhere else outside of Iraq. This unwelcoming stance
appears related to apparent attacks by Israeli war planes on
Iranian forces in Iraq, as well as on Iranian supported, Iraqi
militia.
Oct. 21, 2019 =========================pan> 1)
Reports are emerging that Turkey and Syria are directly
discussing how best to proceed in northeastern Syria.
As a reminder, as recently as 2017 Erdogan called Assad, Syria's
head of government, a terroists that should be removed from
power. That the two sides are actively discussing a
way forward despite this deep seated animosity speaks to the
desire of both parties to avoid a direct military confrontation,
and have probably been encouraged to do so by the Russians.
2) Putin and Erdogan are
reportedly meeting at Sochi to presumably discuss the limits to
which Russia will agree regarding Turkey's invasion. Hard
to see that the Russians will agree to either the geographic
footprint or time frame that Turkey would like, but are they
willing to fight the Turkish military if Erdogan insists? 3)
Turkey states that Syrian protection of SDF and PDF forces
constitutes an "act of war". 4) Kurdish fighters and
civilians complete withdrawl from both the border city of Ras
al-Ain and Sari Kani, which is near Tall Tamr, which is south of
Ras al-Ain
(see map). This withdrawl is consistent with the near
term Turkish goal of clearing the area betweenTal Abyad and Ras
al-Ayn, and which has been the focus of Turkish attention since
the invasion began. 5) Syrian government gains access
to the oil fields of Raqqa, Hama and Homs provinces.
Spokesman state that the fields and associated infrastructure
are completedly destroyed. This
video shows the abysmal condition of at least some of the fields
This link goes to a page with estimates of
preconflict oil production capacities for several of the larger
fields in this 3 province area. 6) Reports indicate
that US troops continue to pull back from Syria and into Iraq.
Oct. 18, 2019 =========================
Notwithstanding the cease fire agreement between Presidents
Trump and Erdogan, there are reports of heavy fighting between
Turkish/SNA and YDF/SPG forces in and around Ain Issa and Ras
al-Ain(see map).
One wonders when and if the cease fire will commence.
Also, more reports are being posted regarding the possible use
of phosphorus and napalm by Turkish forces against civilian Kurd
populations.
This link is to one such report. Oct. 17, 2019 =========================>In a potential game
changer, Kurdish military spokesman are claiming that Turkish
forces are deploying chemical weapons, napalm, and white
phosphorus against civilian positions in Ras al-Ain, Syria
(see map).&n. Though yet to be confirmed, such usage
would be against civilized norms and likely result in further
comdemnations and sanctions from the world community. Oct. 16
2019 =========================>In broad terms, the
on-the-ground reality is shapping up to be roughly as follows:
1) Russian and Syrian troops have entered most areas in
northeastern Syria previously overseen by US troops
(see map). 2) This will lead to reintegration of
the areas into Syria, maintaining Syria's territorial integrity,
and, importantly, control of the main oil and gas producing
regions in the country
(see map). An important outcome of this reintegration
is the prevention of the emergence of "Kurdistan", which no one
other than the Kurds wants to happen. 3) The Turkish
military may be allowed to control what it has already occupied,
at least for as long as is takes to move between 2-3.5 million
Syrian refugees currently in camps in Turkey into the Syrian
territory Turkey controls. However, over the medium term
these positions will likely prove untenable, and the Turkish
occupiers will return to Turkey, leaving behind the resettled
refugees. 4) The above will all be done without a
major conflict breaking out between the players, and without
ISIS remerging. The Kurds will obviously be disappointed,
but in the world of realpolitik it is rare that all the parties
get what they want, especially if a group, like the Kurds, is
essentially "friendless except for the mountains." 5) As a
side note, the Turkish military is claiming the operation into
Syria east of the Euphrates, to be a success. We think it
clear Turkish leadership had hopes of a broader operational
footprint with more extensive engagement with the Kurds,
however, these more expansive plans were apparently
shortcircuited by the rapid deployment of the Syrian Army and
Russian military personel across northeastern Syria over the
past three days. Oct. 15, 2019. ========================= Reports indicate that the
Russians are now in Manbij in either a role supporting the
Syrian army or as the main guarantor of peace in that area.
Either way, the operative outcome is to prevent Turkey from
establishing itself in the town. It is also being reported
that Russian jets are flying over areas where Turkish forces are
prosecuting offensive operations agains the Kurds. This
effectively prevents the Turks from using their planes to bomb
the Kurds during said operations. The Syrian army is now
reported to be back in Kobani and Raqqa, notorious as the capital of ISIS.
US forces have repositioned into southern Syria as an insurance
policy against the reemergence of ISIS. (all
these changes are reflected in this latest map update) Oct.
14, 2019 ======================== Recent reports indicate that the Syrian army has
taken control of the important road junctions on the M4 highway
of Tall Tamr, and Ayn Isa.
(see map). It is being further reported that the
Syrian army and Turkish led irrelgulars are fighting in or near
the important town of Manbij, for control of its important
bridges that cross the Euphrates.
(see map). O. Oct. 13, 2019 ========================= It is being reported that a
deal has been reached between the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian
government, such that the Syrian Army will enter the
northeastern Syrian area controlled by the Kurds, starting with
Manbij, Kobani, Qumishly, and Hasakah, to help resist the
Turkish invasion.
(see map) It It is further being reported that Syrian
Army units are already being deployed into Manbij and Kobani. Oct. 12, 2019. ========================= A statement from the Turkish
MOD dated Oct. 13, 2019 announced ,"As
a result of the successful conduct of Operation Peace Spring, a
depth of 30-35 km has been reached and M-4 highway
(see map) has been
taken under control." ========================= A statement from the Turkish
MOD dated Oct. 12, 2019 announced ,"As part of the successful
operations being conducted in the framework of Operation Peace
Spring, the town of Rasulayn, located east of the Euphrates, has
been brought under control."
(see map)
========================= Video
of Turkish troops securing the M4 highway in northern Syria near
Tal Tamr, Oct. 13, 2019.
Video of Turkish airforce destroying a truck with a twin machine gun mount,
Oct. 12, 2019.
Turkey Reportedly Attacks US Special Forces in Invasion, Oct. 11, 2019
Tens of Thousands Flee Homes; Turkish Invasion Encircles Tal
Abyad and Ras Al-Ain Oct 11, 2019
Fierce On the Ground Fighting Being Reported Near Tal Abyad, Oct
10, 2019 Turkish Artillary Pounds Ras
al-Ain; Civilians Flee the Attacks, Oct. 10, 2019
Erdogan is Threatening Europe With Millions of Syrian Refugees
Oct 10, 2019 UN Security Council to Meet to Discuss Turkey's
Invasion of Syria Oct 10, 2019 Turkish Missile Artillery Targets the Kurds At Jarabulus Oct
9, 2019
Turkish Troops Attack Kurds in
northeastern Syria Oct
9, 2019 People Fleeing Attacks
on
Qamishli City Oct 9, 2019
Turkish Jets Over Tal Abyad Oct 9, 2019
Video of Russians entering Kobani on the Syrian-Turkish
border.
Video showing Russians reoccupying the Taqa aurbase
in the Syria's Raqqa province.
Main Assault Axis of the Turkish Invasion of Syria. Ain
Issa appears to be a primary target, which would be consistent with
its importance to the Kurds and with its location on the M4 highway.
Video showing Turkish forces fighting Kurds for the control
of Ras al-Ain.
Invasion-Day 4: Turkish MOD reports
Ras al-Ain has been captured. For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Turkish Soldiers Entering and Capturing Ras al-Ain, Oct. 12, 2019 For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Turkish Artillery Pounds Kurdish Towns in
Northeasthern Syria: October 9, 2019 For Higher Resolution, Click Image
On Patrol With US Troops Near Tal Abyad, Oct 12, 2019
Syrian Turkish-Kurd Situation (October 2019) (This map
shows not only the Kurd controlled region in northeastern Syria, but
the oil and gas fields and infrastructure within that region.)
For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Map With Updated Information on The Turkish
Incursion into Northeastern Syria name="Interactive 3D Elevation Map of Syria"> The following panel contains an interactive 3D
elevation map of most
of Syria with an overlay of oil and gas fields, pipelines, refining and
power generation and notable population
centers. It is intended to help
provide geographic context for the important oil and gas producing regions
in Syria relative to the Kurd's position and the Turkish incursion. (To use the interactive map,
rotate it using the left mouse button, zoom using the mouse wheel,
and control the viewing perspective (roam) using the right mouse button.
To access videos, photos, and stories related to the action around
each of the conflict points, place the mouse pointer in the center
of the explosion symbol and left click.Then, placing the mouse
pointer over one of the links, right click and open the media in
another tab.)
Link
to full screen version the rotatable, zoomable 3D oil and gas map of Syria shown
in the above panel insert. Note: Town specific videos, images, and
stories can be called up by double clicking with the left button on the black center of the explosion symbol
and then left clicking again on one of the links. (Yes, we realize it is
different than how to access the same information in the embedded version of the
same map (above). We are working to resolve the inconsistency. Sorry for
any confusion, as we are still developing the technology.)
Video and images subject to availability.
Video, purportedly released by the Turkish
airforce by way of CGTN, supposedly showing an attack on Kurdish
positions during the reduction of the Kurdish pocket around Afrin in
early 2018.
The question naturally arises as to
what will happen to the Syrian oil and gas fields in the eastern third
of the country currently controlled by groups aligned with the US. With a drawdown in the US military presence in
Syria, it is hard to imagine that the Syrian government, and
possibly other governments, such as those in Turkey and Iraq, would
not act to reduce Kurd presence and influence in the areas east of
the Euphrates river, which also
contain the most productive fields of the Syrian oil industry.
One practical implication is that as the Syrian government seeks to reestablish control
in the region, we may see a series of battles over oil and gas
fields and support infrastructure, similar to the Battle for Deir
el-Zour, referenced below. It is our view that while
the US will likely withdraw its ground troops from Syria, it will
use airpower to support its allies, potentially setting up direct
military action against Syrian and allied armed forces, including
those from Russia.
Approximate Military Situation in Syria, April 2018 For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Video of the post apocalyptic hell that
has befallen the Syrian oil and gas industry. It looks
straight out of an early Mad Max movie.
Video of the start of
the Turkish invasion of the Kurd controlled area of northeast Syria as
reported by Bloomberg TV
Battle for the Deir el-Zour Oil and Gas Fields
Battle for Deir el-Zour For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Battle between US and Russian forces for Syrian oil and gas
fields in the Deir el-Zour province.
Per a Bloomberg article describing the battle, "More than
200 contract soldiers, mostly Russians fighting on behalf of
Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad," were killed.
As the
following pictures show, the oilfields that were the apparent
target of the attack on Deir el-Zour, were all heavily damaged
in the Syrian civil war.
Syrian Conflict Overview Map Location Of Russian Airstrikes For Higher Resolution, Click Image
Syrian Oil and Gas Overview Map
Syrian Oil Production and Reserves
Syrian Natural Gas Production and Reserves
If interested in a more complete listing of oil and gas infrastructure in
Syria, including natural gas compressor stations, natural gas processing plants,
refineries, oil pumping stations,etc., please contact us at
insight@energy-cg.com./p>
Interactive 3D Elevation Map of Syria The following panel contains an interactive 3D elevation map of most
of Syria with an overlay of the road network and notable population
centers. It is intended to help
provide geographic context for the important oil and gas producing regions
in Syria. To use the interactive map, rotate it using the left mouse
button, zoom using the mouse wheel, and control the viewing perspective
using the right mouse button.
Levant Basin Province, located in the Eastern Mediterranean region,
including parts of offshore Syria
"An estimated 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf)
(mean estimate) of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas are
in the Levant Basin Province, located in the Eastern Mediterranean
region.
Technically recoverable resources are those producible using currently
available technology and industry practices.
This is the first U.S. Geological Survey assessment of this basin to
identify potentially extractable resources.
“The Levant Basin Province is comparable to some of the other large
provinces around the world and its gas resources are bigger than
anything we have assessed in the United States,” said USGS Energy
Resources Program Coordinator Brenda Pierce. “This assessment furthers
our understanding of the world’s energy potential, helping inform policy
and decision makers in making decisions about future energy supplies.”
Natural gas is used for a variety of purposes, primarily for electricity
generation, industrial, residential, and commercial sectors.
Worldwide consumption and production of natural gas was 110 tcf in 2008,
according to the Energy Information Administration. The three largest
consuming countries were the United States with 23 tcf, Russia with 17
tcf, and Iran with 4 tcf of natural gas per year in 2008.
Russia’s West Siberian Basin is another large natural gas province with
an estimated 643 tcf. The Middle East and North Africa region also has
several large provinces, which include the Rub Al Khali Basin with 426
tcf, the Greater Ghawar Uplift with 227 tcf, and the Zagros Fold Belt
with 212 tcf.
Some natural gas accumulations in the United States include the
Southwestern Wyoming Province with an estimated 85 tcf, the National
Petroleum Reserve Alaska Province with 73 tcf, and the Appalachian Basin
Province of the eastern United States and the Western Gulf Basin
Province of Texas and Louisiana, each with 70 tcf.
All of these estimates are mean estimates of undiscovered, technically
recoverable gas resources."
Source: USGS
History of the Syrian Oil and Gas Industry
History: Syria is located in the
northwestern part of the Arabian Quay, the geographical location of
Syria on the Mediterranean Sea and the similarities in the geological
development with Iraq and Iran, where previously proved the presence of
oil attracting researchers interested in oil resources to Syria
In the period 1923-1950:
The Iraqi
Oil Company and then a Syrian oil company that dug 11 oil wells
In 1951-1956:
Oil wells
and exploration were first drilled in the Karkuk field
In 1956:
Concordia
signed an exploration contract and dug 12 wells where the oil flow from
the Swedish field
In 1957:
The
Syrian government conducted economic and technical cooperation with the
Soviet Union
In 1958:
The
General Oil Company, which oversees the oil industry, was established
through cooperation with the Soviet side. During this period, the
biological map of Syria
In 1974:
The
Syrian Oil Company was established and undertook to undertake the
exploration of gas and oil in all parts of Syria
In 1961-1975:
The
Syrian Oil Company dug 485 exploratory wells and put a number of
structures in production and a contract was signed with Rum Oil Company,
which withdrew after drilling 7 wells
1975-1985:
A group
of oil companies entered Syria and carried out geological and
geophysical works on almost every Syria. 270 exploratory wells were
drilled and the Syrian Oil Company recorded several explorations.
In the period 1986-1995:
This
period was characterized by an increase in the exploratory activity of
the Syrian Oil Company and the other companies with which the Syrian
company signed contracts such as Shell, Elf Total, Marathon and Tolo,
where the Syrian company discovered 15 gas and oil fields
1995-2006:
Another
group of foreign companies signed contracts with the Syrian Oil Company
Recent News
Recent Syrian Oil and Gas News:
Tuesday, 13/3/2018 (A well of
the continent / 3 / productivity 400 thousand m3 - well / 9 /
productivity of 100 thousand m 3) in service.Within
the framework of the plans to provide the national needs of crude
oil, natural gas, oil derivatives and mineral resources, especially
the fuel needed for the work of the power plants, the Minister of
Oil and Mineral Resources Ali Ghanem inaugurated two new gas wells,
the continent (3/9 / Half a million cubic meters of gas per day.In
the context of the productive drilling operations in the safe and
safe locations, including the fields north of Damascus, the efforts
of national cadres working in the Ministry of Oil and Mineral
Resources (Syrian Oil Company) resulted in the development of a well
/ 3 / gas in service at a depth of / 3572 / meter, To 400 thousand m
3, after the completion of drilling and testing on 4/3/2018, and
immediately placed in the investment and was transferred to work on
the new drilling site is the well / continent / 4 / new, which will
start drilling soon.In a field in Homs, Ghanem
inaugurated a well (9 /), which took the drilling and finishing
operations in about seven months at a depth of 3670 m and was
introduced in production after the completion of drilling on
3/3/2018 and estimated its productivity is about / 100 / thousand
meters Cube of gas / day.Ghanem praised the
exploration of the project to extend the link between the north of
Damascus and the gas network by taking advantage of the materials
and equipment in the oil and gas companies and thus reducing the
expenses of implementing this project which will enter 1 million
cubic meters of gas production during the month of 2018. The
drilling rig on the well 10 / which will be started drilling soon,
and is expected to take about 6 / months drilling.He
also reviewed the new amendments made by national efforts and
competencies on the plant in order to increase the capacity of the
plant, which contributed to increase the plant capacity up to (2)
million m3 / day.The Minister of Oil referred to the
principle of self-reliance adopted by the cadres in their work
during the follow-up meeting held in the Central Region Directorate
in Al-Farqals - Homs province to follow up the implementation of a
number of projects including: Rehabilitation of Wadi Obeid oil field
and the collection and treatment plant, 248.6 /
million barrels of oil and the current production of about / 1400 /
barrels per day and scheduled to increase to / 3000 / barrel / day
by the end of the ninth month.As well as the
rehabilitation of the heavy oil transport line between the pumping
station of Akirishi and Homs according to the plan of the ambulance,
which is scheduled to transfer about / 10 / thousand barrels / day
after the completion of the estimated estimated by about 6 / months
and thus dispense with the transfer of oil by tankers.The
rehabilitation of gas wells in the north of the central region and
plans to complete the construction of the gas plant were also
followed. The project's production is expected to increase from 1.2
million cubic meters to about 3 million cubic meters per day by the
end of this year.As well as the project north of
Damascus (drilling and repair of wells, and construction of gas
collection network).As well as the rehabilitation of
the heavy oil transport line between the pumping station of Akirishi
and Homs according to the plan of the ambulance, which is scheduled
to transfer about / 10 / thousand barrels / day after the completion
of the estimated estimated by about 6 / months and thus dispense
with the transfer of oil by tankers.The rehabilitation
of gas wells in the north of the central region and plans to
complete the construction of the gas plant were also followed. The
project's production is expected to increase from 1.2 million cubic
meters to about 3 million cubic meters per day by the end of this
year.As well as the project north of Damascus
(drilling and repair of wells, and construction of gas collection
network).As well as the rehabilitation of the heavy
oil transport line between the pumping station of Akirishi and Homs
according to the plan of the ambulance, which is scheduled to
transfer about / 10 / thousand barrels / day after the completion of
the estimated estimated by about 6 / months and thus dispense with
the transfer of oil by tankers.The rehabilitation of
gas wells in the north of the central region and plans to complete
the construction of the gas plant were also followed. The project's
production is expected to increase from 1.2 million cubic meters to
about 3 million cubic meters per day by the end of this year.As
well as the project north of Damascus (drilling and repair of wells,
and construction of gas collection network.)
Syria's energy sector is in turmoil because of the ongoing
civil conflict that began in the spring of 2011, with oil and natural gas
production declining dramatically since then.
Syria's energy sector has encountered a number of challenges as a result
of conflict and subsequent sanctions imposed by the United States and the
European Union. Damage to energy infrastructure—including oil and natural
gas pipelines and electricity transmission networks—hindered the
exploration, development, production, and transport of the country's energy
resources.
Syria, previously the
eastern Mediterranean's leading oil and natural gas producer, has seen
its production fall to a fraction of pre-conflict levels. Syria is no longer
able to export oil, and as a result, government revenues from the energy
sector have fallen significantly. Prior to the current conflict, when Syria
produced 383,000 barrels per day (b/d) of oil and 316 million cubic feet per
day (Mmcf/d) of natural gas, Syria's oil and gas sector accounted for
approximately one fourth of government revenues.
Syria faces major challenges in supplying fuel oil to its citizens.
Electricity service in much of the country is sporadic as a result of
fighting between government, opposition forces and the Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria (ISIS). Further, the exploration and development of the country's
oil and natural gas resources have been delayed indefinitely. Nevertheless,
even if the fighting were to subside, it would take years for the Syrian
domestic energy system to return to pre-conflict operating status.
Syria summary energy statistics
Oil
Proved reserves, 2015 (million
barrels)
Petroleum and other liquids supply, 2014 (thousand b/d)
Petroleum and other liquids consumption, 2013 (thousand b/d)
2,500
33
224
Natural gas
Proved reserves, 2015 (billion cubic
feet)
Dry natural gas production, 2013 (billion cubic feet)
Dry natural gas consumption, 2013 (billion cubic feet)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Oil & Gas Journal
Sector organization
In 1964, Syria passed legislation that limited licenses for exploration
and investment to the Syrian government. The Ministry of Petroleum and
Mineral Resources oversees the Syrian oil and natural gas sectors, and is in
charge of setting policy priorities and coordinating the efforts of the
state-led companies that operate in the sector. The following information
reflects the pre-conflict operating status of Syria's oil and natural gas
sector.
The General Petroleum Company (GPC) oversaw the strategies for
exploration, development, and investment in Syria's oil and gas sector, and
supervised the activities of its many affiliated companies, including the
Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC) and the Syrian Gas Company (SGC). The SPC was
Syria's largest state-owned oil company, and it had a number of
production-sharing agreements (PSAs) in place throughout the oil sector.
Most of the country's PSAs were split equally between the SPC and its
partners. These arrangements often ensured that the Syrian government
retained a certain percentage of the oil produced in its fields as
royalties. Contracts regularly lasted up to 25 years.
The SPC operated through several subsidiaries, the most notable being the
Al-Furat Petroleum Company (AFPC), which was a joint venture between the
SPC, Royal Dutch Shell, the Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC), and
India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC). Other SPC subsidiaries
included the Deir Ez-zor Petroleum Company, the Syria-Sino Alkawkab Oil
Company, the Hayan Petroleum Company, the Oudeh Petroleum Company, and the
Dijla Petroleum Company. International oil companies with interests in Syria
prior to the conflict included Gulfsands, Sinopec, and Total, as well as
several other smaller companies. By most accounts, nearly all of Syria's
foreign partners have left the country.
The General Organization for Refining and Distribution of Petroleum
Products (GORDPP) managed the country's downstream portfolio for oil and
natural gas. It also oversaw the operations of the Banias Refinery Company
and the Homs Refinery Company, among other duties. Other important state
entities overseen by the GORDPP included the Syrian Company for Oil
Transport (SCOT, which operated the country's pipelines), Mahrukat (which
dealt with refined products), and Sytrol (the state marketer of petroleum
products).
The Syrian Gas Company (SGC)—which fell under the GPC—was the key entity
in Syria's upstream natural gas operations, a position it inherited after
being split off from the SPC in 2003. Syria's natural gas distribution
network was managed by the SCOT. The majority of Syria's gas-processing
plants were operated by state-owned firms—led by the SPC—but there were a
handful that were operated by international companies.
The Ministry of Electricity oversaw the electricity sector in Syria,
while the General Establishment for Electricity Transmission operated the
country's transmission system. Syria also had separate entities for the
generation and distribution of electricity.
Petroleum and other liquids
Syria's oil sector has been in a state of disarray since
2011. Production and exports of crude oil have fallen to nearly zero, and the
country is facing supply shortages of refined products.
The Oil & Gas Journal estimated Syria's proved reserves of oil
at 2.5 billion barrels as of January 1, 2015, a total larger than each of
Syria's neighbors except for Iraq.1 Most of Syria's crude oil is
heavy (low gravity) and sour (high sulfur content), which requires a
specific configuration of refineries to process. Sanctions placed on Syria
by the European Union in particular—whose countries accounted for the
majority of Syrian oil exports previously—limited the number of markets
available to import and process the heavier Syrian crudes. The loss of oil
export capabilities severely limited Syrian government revenues,
particularly the lost access to European markets, which in 2011 imported
over $3 billion worth of oil from Syria, according to the European
Commission.2 Prior to sanctions, European refineries were the
target market for Syrian oil because they were configured to process heavy,
sour oil.
Since the swift advance of ISIS in 2014, Syrian oil production has
essentially ceased. The lack of domestic crude oil production has caused the
country's two main refineries to operate at less than half of normal
capacity, resulting in supply shortages for refined petroleum products.
Further, sanctions—and the resulting loss of oil export revenues—make
importing petroleum products difficult. It is likely that Iran continues to
supply Syria with crude oil and refined products.3 Oil theft is
also a problem, with Syrian officials claiming that hundreds of barrels of
crude oil are being stolen and shipped to neighboring countries each day.
Exploration and production
Syria's oil production, which averaged over 400,000 b/d
between 2008 and 2010, was less than 25,000 b/d in May 2015.
With the onset of sanctions by the
United
States, the European Union, and other countries, almost all of the
international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) ceased
operations in Syria, significantly limiting Syria's exploration and
production capabilities. Most of Syria's existing oil fields are located in
the east near the border with Iraq or in the center of the country, east of
the city of Homs. Possession of Syria's largest producing fields including
the Deir-ez-Zour region—which includes Syria's largest field, Omar—has
fallen to ISIS.4 The exact level of current production from these
fields is unknown, but U.S.-led airstrikes have certainly caused structural
damage in the region and have limited its output.
Syria's average oil production from 2008—10 was stable at approximately
400,000 b/d, but since the combined disruptions of military conflict and
economic sanctions began, the country's production dropped dramatically. The
latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates indicate that
Syrian crude oil and condensates production has fallen to barely 25,000
b/d—including production outside the control of the Syrian government. This
level is a drop of roughly 90% since the conflict began in March 2011.
The years prior to the onset of hostilities saw an increased emphasis on
the use of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques in Syria, with several
companies promising increased investment in the country's mature oil fields.
The AFPC utilized water- and gas-injection systems to aid recovery in many
of its fields, and—with little in the way of new discoveries expected—EOR
techniques are likely to become increasingly important for ensuring stable
output should production resume.
Syria also has shale oil resources, with estimates of reserves in 2010
ranging as high as 50 billion tons according to Syrian government sources.5
The Syrian government delayed a bidding round for the country's shale
resources—scheduled for November 2011—because of the political situation in
the country.
Imports and exports
Syria's crude oil exports are assumed to have ceased, and
the country is having difficulties importing refined petroleum products.
In the years leading up to 2011, Syria began importing more refined
petroleum products to meet rising domestic demand. In 2010, the country
imported an average of 105,000 b/d of refined petroleum products, and
exported just 36,000 b/d. At the time, Syria was also exporting more than
150,000 b/d of crude oil, but the country's crude exports are now
effectively zero. Following the imposition of sanctions and the advancement
of ISIS, Syria has experienced a shortage of crude oil and petroleum
products. Iran continues to supply Syria with approximately 60,000 b/d of
crude oil, but this level is still insufficient to meet demand.6
Syria has three export terminals on the Mediterranean Sea, all operated
by the Syrian Company for Oil Transport (SCOT) under the GORDPP. Syria has
two crude oil export blends, Syrian Light and Syrian Heavy (also known as
Souedieh).
Refining and consumption
The combined capacity of Syria's two refineries has fallen
to roughly half its pre-conflict output.
Syria has two state-owned refineries, one in Homs and the other in
Banias. The combined nameplate capacity of the two refineries at the
beginning of 2015 was slightly less than 240,000 b/d according to the
Oil & Gas Journal;7 a total capacity that met only
three-fourths of Syria's pre-conflict demand for refined products. With
damage to pipelines and other infrastructure around the refinery at Homs in
particular, Syrian officials claim that the country's actual refining
capacity now is closer to 50% of its pre-war nameplate capacity.8
Several proposed refineries are now on hold or canceled altogether, such as
the proposed 100,000 bbl/d facility at Abu Khashab backed by the CNPC, which
was canceled because of the security situation in the country.
Natural gas
Syria's natural gas sector has not been affected quite as
severely by the ongoing conflict as its oil sector, although dry natural gas
production is down by at least 40% compared with pre—conflict totals.
The Oil & Gas Journal reported that Syria held proved reserves
of 8.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas as of January 2015. Like the
country's oil fields, the majority of Syria's natural gas fields are in the
central and eastern parts of the country. Most of Syria's natural gas is
used by commercial and residential customers and in power generation. Syria
also uses its natural gas in oil—recovery efforts, with approximately 20% of
daily gross production reinjected into the country's oil fields between 2004
and 2013.
In 2008, Syria became a net importer of natural gas, but the country's
current state of conflict—and sanctions—have affected the ability of Syria
to receive natural gas. The only source of natural gas imports, the Arab Gas
Pipeline, became the target of attacks as the conflict intensified, forcing
the pipeline to shut down. Syria's plans to convert all existing thermal
power generation facilities to natural gas—fired plants (many are currently
using refined petroleum products) hinge on these import volumes being
available, but this goal seems out of reach.
Exploration and production
Syria's dry natural gas production fell to less than 200
billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2013 according to estimates from EIA.
In 2010, the last year under normal operating conditions, Syria produced
316 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of dry natural gas. By 2012, that figure
dropped by 28% to about 227 Bcf, and EIA estimates that production was 187
Bcf in 2013. Prior to the current conflict, more than half of Syria's
natural gas production came from nonassociated fields, with those volumes
being redirected to oil fields and domestic demand centers through the
country's domestic pipeline network. In 2012, 25% of Syrian natural gas
production was reinjected into the country's oil fields to aid in oil
recovery, a slight increase from the 2002—11 average of nearly 19%.
According to Syrian government officials, in 2013 more than 90% of the
country's natural gas production was used by the country's power sector.
Imports and exports
According to press reports, Syria is not currently importing
natural gas from Egypt via the Arab Gas Pipeline.
Syria has never produced sufficient volumes of natural gas to export.
Prior to the recent conflict, Syria imported a small amount of natural gas
from
Egypt to supplement its own domestic production, but production volumes
dropped by more than 60% between 2010 and 2011 (from 24.4 Bcf to 8.8 Bcf,
according to Cedigaz data) and stopped in 2012. Those imports came via the
Arab Gas Pipeline, which started operating in 2008 and sends Egyptian gas
into Syria (near Homs) via
Jordan.
There were plans to expand the pipeline into
Turkey,
Lebanon,
and eventually to Europe, but developments are now unlikely.
Arab Gas Pipeline
U.S. Energy Information Administration, IHS
Representation of international boundaries is not necessarily
authoritative
Electricity
Syria's electricity infrastructure, including power plants,
substations, and transmission lines, has been a frequent target of sabotage.
In 2010, Syria generated almost 44 billion kilowatthours of electricity,
94% of which came from conventional thermal power plants. The remaining 6%
came from hydroelectric power plants. Refined petroleum products and natural
gas fuel Syria's thermal generating facilities. Syria plans to convert all
of its thermal generation facilities to run on natural gas as soon as
possible, although this is unlikely until hostilities end. Syria's lack of
domestic refining capacity, the ongoing sanctions on the country's energy
sector, and declining natural gas production combine to limit the
availability of the necessary fuel for Syria's electric plants and have
contributed to blackouts in many parts of the country.
By early 2013, more than 30 of Syria's power stations were inactive, and
at least 40% of the country's high voltage lines had been attacked,
according to Syria's Minister of Electricity. Syria's electricity generating
capacity was 8.9 gigawatts in 2012, although damage to electricity
generating facilities, high voltage power lines, and other infrastructure
has likely reduced the country's effective capacity. Electricity
distribution losses, already 17% of total generation in 2012, have likely
climbed even further.
Prior to the current conflict, the Syrian government hoped to emphasize
the importance of renewable energy and laid out plans to develop renewable
energy sources in the country. The 11th Five-Year Plan for 2011—2015
made that goal clear; however, there will be no progress in the near term.
Syria, along with Egypt,
Iraq,
Jordan,
Libya, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, and Turkey, is a member of
the Eight Country Interconnection Project, but the current state of Syria's
electricity sector leaves the future of the project—within Syria—in doubt.
In 2012, Syria reduced its imports of electricity from neighboring Egypt,
Jordan, and Turkey, opting to pursue an arrangement with Iran instead. That
agreement would connect 250 megawatts of transmission capacity from Iran to
Syria, and came after the announcement that Syria had suspended purchasing
electricity from Turkey. Iran agreed to provide Syria with a $1 billion
credit facility in mid-2013, with half of the total earmarked for electric
power projects.9
In September 2012, Syria's Minister of Electricity announced plans to
boost generating capacity by an additional 1.5 gigawatts over the next
several years. However, as with most projects in the country, current
conflict and lack of access to international capital makes such an
undertaking impossible.
Notes
Data presented in the text are the most recent available as of June
24, 2015.
Data are EIA estimates unless otherwise noted.
Sources
1Oil & Gas Journal, Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,
January 1, 2015. 2European Commission,
Trade in goods with Syria, April 2015, page 5. 3Middle
East Economic Survey, “Damascus Cash Crunch as Crude Below 10,000 b/d”,
volume 58, issue 18 (May 1, 2015). 4Middle East Economic
Survey, “Syria's Economic Woes Only Set to Intensify”, volume 58,
issue 5 (January 30, 2015). 5International Business Times, “Syrian
Oil and Gas: Little-known Facts on Syria's Energy Resources and Russia's
Help”, September 4, 2013. 6Middle East Economic Survey, “Syria's
Economic Hardships Intensify with Fuel Shortage”, volume 58, issue 9
(February 27, 2015). 7Oil & Gas Journal, Worldwide Refining
Survey, January 1, 2015. 8Middle East Economic Survey, “Damascus
Cash Crunch as Crude Below 10,000 b/d”, volume 58, issue 18 (May 1,
2015). 9Reuters, “Iran grants Syria $3.6 billion credit
facility to buy oil products”, July 31, 2013.